Facebook seems to be in trouble (again), if you missed the headlines it lost more than $232 billion in value last weekand I feel this is just the start of a steady decline.
Perhaps it can rise from the issues it faces using Meta as the 'new thing' but my feeling is that it is the end of social media as we know it. And if I am right, what will take our attention over the next five years?
Before we get into his topic, let me be clear that I am writing this from my place running a social media agency and working in this space since MySpace was the dominant platform. I didn't drive the DeLorean at 88 miles per hour into the future, so I don't really know, it's my best guess based on working in this space with my companies Social Star and CampusLife.
My last prediction that Facebook would fall and LinkedIn would surpass it in 2020 (blog here) was heading in the right direction. People have moved off Facebook to other platforms. However, the traffic got fragmented between TikTok for youngsters, Instagram and LinkedIn for business people (seen any baby pics or engagement stories on LinkedIn lately? yes LinkedIn is social media now) and others.
LinkedIn still doesn't have the traffic or revenue of Facebook, but it surely owners one specific nice. Plus it was purchased by Microsoft for $26 billion in 2016, not bad for a 14-year-old company, mainly because it continues to grow year in year out.
So without further ado, my prediction for social media over the next five years:
1) Facebook goes from bad to worse. I feel Facebook is at risk (and Instagram) because they are trying to push advertising so much that they are really annoying their core users.
Their algorithm has been getting worse for years and now people are simply switching off. Kids today don't bother with Facebook, but even scarier is that they aren't even on Instagram. They are TikToking their way through social media, watching YouTube and gaming.
I don't think the Metaverse will save Facebook either. I think this project will be a massive white elephant. They have spent $10 billion thus far and they have billions more to invest if required. But the issue is money can't buy the attention of the public for long. For those that forgot the lessons from Google + let me remind you. Google, with all the expertise and money in the world, couldn't get people to use their social platform that was meant to be a Facebook killer. So they euthanised it.
Plus, I am old enough to remember Second Life which was good and still has millions of users, but do we really need another virtual world? I really feel that post-pandemic, people will want to return to face to face contact, not more online worlds.
2) Gaming is crushing it. You might have noticed that your kids like games...duh. The rise of high-quality games is gaining the attention of a lot of youngsters and big IT is noticing. They are buying gaming companies flat out. This will continue and I'm sure here is where the Metaverse will try to take advantage of VR to get more attention of gamers. The issue is their business model of advertising doesn't really work in this space. So how do they capitalise on it without interfering with the user experience?
3) Private social media. My prediction isn't that all social media will fail. More so the domination of Facebook will reduce and more niche products will emerge. Tik Tok for short video, YouTube for long video, Instagram for visual imagery, LinkedIn for business people, Clubhouse for audio, Twitch for gaming, Twitter for news and many more.
My most bold prediction is that there will start emerging a new form of social media that is very niche and private. Just like Facebook groups that are really popular and have tens of thousands of members, but within its own social media where you can share your content freely without risk of being scammed, trolled or hit on. A place where you can feel safe and your privacy is ensured. Everyone is verified, content is moderated and there are no algorithms to push sensational and often incorrect information to the top of your feed because there is no advertising! Imagine that, no ads and seeing your friends content first. Dream :)
How could this be possible? Where does the money come from? I hear you ask...
I believe people will pay for privacy. Before you tell me that people will not pay for social media remember that LinkedIn makes its money from premium subscriptions. So does Spotify, Amazon, Netflix etc It's possible if you provide enough value.
I believe this so much that I am banking on it myself with CampusLife, a private social ecosystem for University students but more on that later...
For those in the industry, what are your predictions for the future?
